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Large scale virological testing of SARS-Cov2 is implemented since May 2020 inFrance. We assume that the positivity of asymptomatic people not being contactcases (ANBC) is representative of the positivity of the whole Frenchpopulation, which allows estimating the real incidence. We estimate, usingSant\'e Public France reports, that the incidence at the beginning of Augustwas about 0.8% and rose to about 2.4% of the total population at the beginningof September. This corresponds to about 1.6 million people simultaneouslyinfected and 230.000 new infections each day. These evaluations allow to deducethat intensive care units (ICU) admission rate and infection fatality rate(IFR) dropped by one order of magnitude since March, and are currently 0.036%and 0.027% respectively. Basic simulations of the outbreak evolution based onthe hypothesis of negligible reinfection probability are performed for France,Ile de France, Puy de Dome, Bouches du Rhone and Grand Est. These simulationsare using a reproduction rate (R) constant over time ranging from 1.3 to 1.45(1.15 in Grand Est). They use an estimation of the number of infection whichoccurred during the first wave. These simulations also use the estimatedincidence, which by reducing the susceptible population weeks after weeksinduces a saturation of the otherwise exponential growth of the outbreak. Anincidence peak of 3.5 % is expected at week 39 for France. The calculated totalnumber of ICU admission and deaths during the second wave are 9000 and 7000respectively for R=1.3. The cumulative incidence over the two waves is computedclose to 60% for R=1.3 and 70% for R=1.4. This suggests that if individualimmunity exists, herd immunity is likely to be achieved in France by the end ofOctober 2020. We conclude that Covid-19 is much more spread than previouslythought, but its severity became limited since the end of the first wave.

Realistic estimate of the Covid-19 incidence and mortality rate in France