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We study the response of the Lagrangian sea ice model neXtSIM to theuncertainty in the sea surface wind and sea ice cohesion. The ice mechanics inneXtSIM is based on a brittle-like rheological framework. The study considersshort-term ensemble forecasts of the Arctic sea ice from January to April 2008.Ensembles are generated by perturbing the wind inputs and ice cohesion fieldboth separately and jointly. The resulting uncertainty in the probabilisticforecasts is evaluated statistically based on the analysis of Lagrangian seaice trajectories as sampled by virtual drifters seeded in the model to coverthe Arctic Ocean and using metrics borrowed from the search-and-rescueliterature. The comparison among the different ensembles indicates that windperturbations dominate the forecast uncertainty i.e. the absolute spread of theensemble, while the inhomogeneities in the ice cohesion field significantlyincrease the degree of anisotropy in the spread i.e. trajectories driftdifferently in different directions. We suggest that in order to get a fullflavor of uncertainties in a sea ice model with brittle-like rheologies, topredict sea ice drift and trajectories, one should consider usingensemble-based simulations where both wind forcing and sea ice cohesion areperturbed.

Probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories in the Arctic: impact of uncertainties in surface wind and ice cohesion