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This research details outcomes from a global model which estimates futurehydrogen penetration into a carbon constrained energy system to the year 2050.Focusing on minimum and maximum penetration scenarios, an investigation ofglobal fuel cell vehicle (FCV) deployment is undertaken, cognizant of optimaleconomic deployment at the global level and stakeholder preferences in a casestudy of Japan. The model is mathematically formulated as a very large-scalelinear optimization problem, aiming to minimize system costs, includinggeneration type, fuel costs, conversion costs, and carbon reduction costs,subject to the constraint of carbon dioxide reductions for each nation. Resultsshow that between approximately 0.8% and 2% of global energy consumption needscan be met by hydrogen out to the year 2050, with city gas and transportemerging as significant use cases. Passenger FCVs and hydrogen buses accountfor almost all of the hydrogen-based transportation sector, leading to a globaldeployment of approximately 120 million FCVs by 2050. Hydrogen production isreliant on fossil fuels, and OECD nations are net importers - especially Japanwith a 100% import case. To underpin hydrogen production from fossil fuels,carbon capture and storage (CCS) is required in significant quantities whenanticipating a large fleet of FCVs. Stakeholder engagement suggests optimismtoward FCV deployment while policy issues identified include necessity forlarge-scale future energy system investment and rapid technical and economicfeasibility progress for renewable energy technologies and electrolyzers.

Hydrogen Penetration and Fuel Cell Vehicle Deployment in the Carbon Constrained Future Energy System