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The FIFA Men's World Cup Tournament (WCT) is the most important football(soccer) competition, attracting worldwide attention. A popular practice amongfootball fans in Brazil is to organize contests in which each participantinforms guesses on the final score of each match. The participants are thenranked according to some scoring rule. Inspired by these contests, we created awebsite to hold an online contest, in which participants were asked for theirprobabilities on the outcomes of upcoming matches of the WCT. After each roundof the tournament, the ranking of all users based on a proper scoring rule werepublished. This paper studies the performance of some methods intended toextract the wisdom of the crowds, which are aggregated forecasts that uses someor all of the forecasts available. The later methods are compared to simplerforecasting strategies as well as to statistical prediction models. Ourfindings corroborate the hypothesis that, at least for sporting events, thewisdom of the crowds offers a competitive forecasting strategy. Specifically,some of these strategies were able to achieve high scores in our contest.

Wisdom of the crowds forecasting the 2018 FIFA Men's World Cup