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We have established a novel mathematical model that considers various aspectsof the spreading of the virus, including, the transmission based on being inthe latent period, environment to human transmission, governmental decisions,and control measures. To accomplish this, a compartmental model with eightbatches (sub-population groups) has been proposed and the simulation of the setof differential equations has been conducted to show the effects of the variousinvolved parameters. Also, to achieve more accurate results and closer toreality, the coefficients of a system of differential equations containingtransmission rates, death rates, recovery rates and etc. have been proposed bysome new step-functions viewpoint. Results: First of all, the efficiency of theproposed model has been shown for Iran and Italy, which completely denoted theflexibility of our model for predicting the epidemic progress and its momentbehavior. The model has shown that the reopening plans and governmentalmeasures directly affect the number of active cases of the disease. Also, ithas specified that even releasing a small portion of the population (about 2-3percent) can lead to a severe increase in active patients and consequentlymultiple waves in the disease progress. The effects of the healthcarecapacities of the country have been obtained (quantitatively), which clearlyspecify the importance of this context. Control strategies including strictimplementation of mitigation (reducing the transmission rates) andre-quarantine of some portion of population have been investigated and theirefficiency has been shown.

A New Dynamic Model to Predict the Effects of Governmental Decisions on the Progress of the CoViD-19 Epidemic