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We propose an agent-based model of collective opinion formation to study thewisdom of crowds under social influence. The opinion of an agent is acontinuous positive value, denoting its subjective answer to a factualquestion. The wisdom of crowds states that the average of all opinions is closeto the truth, i.e. the correct answer. But if agents have the chance to adjusttheir opinion in response to the opinions of others, this effect can bedestroyed. Our model investigates this scenario by evaluating two competingeffects: (i) agents tend to keep their own opinion (individual conviction$\beta$), (ii) they tend to adjust their opinion if they have information aboutthe opinions of others (social influence $\alpha$). For the latter, twodifferent regimes (full information vs. aggregated information) are compared.Our simulations show that social influence only in rare cases enhances thewisdom of crowds. Most often, we find that agents converge to a collectiveopinion that is even farther away from the true answer. So, under socialinfluence the wisdom of crowds can be systematically wrong.

Enhanced or distorted wisdom of crowds? An agent-based model of opinion formation under social influence