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Context: Over the last decades, open-source software has pervaded thesoftware industry and has become one of the key pillars in softwareengineering. The incomparable growth of open source reflected that pervasion:Prior work described open source as a whole to be growing linearly,polynomially, or even exponentially.  Objective: In this study, we explore the long-term growth of open source andcorroborating previous findings by replicating previous studies on measuringthe growth of open source projects.  Method: We replicate four existing measurements on the growth of open sourceon a sample of 172,833 open-source projects using Open Hub as the measurementsystem: We analyzed lines of code, commits, new projects, and the number ofopen-source contributors over the last 30 years in the known open-sourceuniverse.  Results: We found growth of open source to be exhausted: After an initialexponential growth, all measurements show a monotonic downwards trend since itspeak in 2013. None of the existing growth models could stand the test of time.  Conclusion: Our results raise more questions on the growth of open source andthe representativeness of Open Hub as a proxy for describing open source. Wediscuss multiple interpretations for our observations and encourage furtherresearch using alternative data sets.

A Replication Study on Measuring the Growth of Open Source