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The outbreak of COVID-19 in March 2020 led to a shutdown of economicactivities in Europe. This included the sports sector, since public gatheringswere prohibited. The German Bundesliga was among the first sport leaguesrealising a restart without spectators. Several recent studies suggest that thehome advantage of teams was eroded for the remaining matches. Our paperanalyses the reaction by bookmakers to the disappearance of such homeadvantage. We show that bookmakers had problems to adjust the betting odds inaccordance to the disappeared home advantage, opening opportunities forprofitable betting strategies.

Bookmakers' mispricing of the disappeared home advantage in the German Bundesliga after the COVID-19 break