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In this study we overview recent advances with prediction of solar activityusing as a proxy solar background magnetic field and detection of grand solarcycles of about 400 years separated by grand solar minima (GSMs).The previousGSM known as the Maunder minimum was recorded from 1645 to 1715. Theterrestrial temperature during Maunder Minimum was reduced by up to 1.0C thatled to freezing rivers, cold winters and summers. The modern GSM started in2020 and will last for three solar cycles until 2053. During this GSM twoprocesses will affect the input of solar radiation: a decrease of solaractivity and an increase in total solar irradiance because of solar inertialmotion (SIM). For evaluation of the latter this study uses daily ephemeris ofthe Sun-Earth (SE) distances in two millennia from 600 to 2600 showingsignificant decreases of SE distances in the first 6 months of a year by 0.005au in 600 to 1600 and by more than 0.01 au in 1600 to 2600 with consequentincreases of SE distances in the second halves of a year. Although, theseincreases are not fully symmetric in the second millennium (1600 to 2600),during which the longest SE distances are gradually shifted from 21 June to 15July in 2600 while the shortest ones from 21 December to 15 January. Thesedistance variations impose significant increases of solar irradiance in thefirst six months of each year in the two millennia, which are not fully offsetby the solar radiation decreases in the last six months in millennium 1600 to2600. This misbalance creates an annual surplus of solar radiation to beprocessed by the terrestrial atmosphere and ocean environments that can lead toan increase of terrestrial temperature. We estimate that decrease of solaractivity during GSM combined with its increase imposed by SIM will lead to areduction of terrestrial temperature during the modern GSM to the levels of1700.

Solar activity, solar irradiance and terrestrial temperature