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We use the Newcomb-Benford law to test if countries have manipulated reporteddata during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that democratic countries, countrieswith the higher gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, higher healthcareexpenditures, and better universal healthcare coverage are less likely todeviate from the Newcomb-Benford law. The relationship holds for the cumulativenumber of reported deaths and total cases but is more pronounced for the deathtoll. The findings are robust for second-digit tests, for a sub-sample ofcountries with regional data, and in relation to the previous swine flu (H1N1)2009-2010 pandemic. The paper further highlights the importance of independentsurveillance data verification projects.

Who Manipulates Data During Pandemics? Evidence from Newcomb-Benford Law