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COVID19 was first reported in England at the end of January 2020, and bymid-June over 150,000 cases were reported. We assume that, similarly toinfluenza-like illnesses, people who suffer from COVID19 may query for theirsymptoms prior to accessing the medical system (or in lieu of it). Therefore,we analyzed searches to Bing from users in England, identifying cases whereunexpected rises in relevant symptom searches occurred at specific areas of thecountry. Our analysis shows that searches for "fever" and "cough" were the mostcorrelated with future case counts, with searches preceding case counts by16-17 days. Unexpected rises in search patterns were predictive of future casecounts multiplying by 2.5 or more within a week, reaching an Area Under Curve(AUC) of 0.64. Similar rises in mortality were predicted with an AUC ofapproximately 0.61 at a lead time of 3 weeks. Thus, our metric provided PublicHealth England with an indication which could be used to plan the response toCOVID19 and could possibly be utilized to detect regional anomalies of otherpathogens.

Providing early indication of regional anomalies in COVID19 case counts in England using search engine queries