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We develop an agent-based model of disease transmission in remote communitiesin Western Australia. Despite extreme isolation, we show that the movement ofpeople amongst a large number of small but isolated communities has the effectof causing transmission to spread quickly. Significant movement between remotecommunities, and regional and urban centres allows for infection to quicklyspread to and then among these remote communities. Our conclusions are based ontwo characteristic features of remote communities in Western Australia: (1)high mobility of people amongst these communities, and (2) relatively highproportion of travellers from very small communities to major populationcentres. In models of infection initiated in the state capital, Perth, theseremote communities are collectively and uniquely vulnerable. Our model andanalysis does not account for possibly heightened impact due to preexistingconditions, such additional assumptions would only make the projections of thismodel more dire. We advocate stringent monitoring and control of movement toprevent significant impact on the indigenous population of Western Australia.

Modelling remote epidemic transmission in Western Australia and implications for pandemic response