English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Free Plan

The paper formulates and solves the problem of identification of unknownparameters of mathematical models of the spread of COVID-19 coronavirusinfection, based on SEIR type models, based on additional information about thenumber of detected cases, mortality, self-isolation coefficient and testsperformed for the Moscow city and the Novosibirsk Region from 03.23.2020.Within the framework of the models used, the population is divided into seven(SEIR-HCD) and five (SEIR-D) groups with similar characteristics withtransition probabilities between groups depending on a specific region.Identifiability analysis of the SEIR-HCD mathematical model was carried out,which revealed the least sensitive unknown parameters to additionalmeasurements. The tasks of refining the parameters are reduced to minimizingthe corresponding target functionals, which were solved using stochasticmethods (simulating annealing, differential evolution, genetic algorithm,etc.). For a different amount of tested data, a prognostic scenario for thedevelopment of the disease in the city of Moscow and the Novosibirsk region wasdeveloped, the peak is predicted the development of the epidemic in Moscow withan error of 2 days and 174 detected cases, and an analysis of the applicabilityof the developed models was carried out.

Mathematical modeling and prediction of COVID-19 in Moscow city and Novosibirsk region