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In this paper, we estimate the impact of national lockdown on COVID-19related total and daily deaths, per million people, in select Europeancountries. In particular, we compare countries that imposed a nationwidelockdown (Treatment group); Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway,Spain, United Kingdom (UK), and the US, to Sweden (Control group) that did notimpose national lockdown using a changes-in-changes (CIC) estimation model. Thekey advantage of the CIC model as compared to the standarddifference-in-difference model is that CIC allows for mean and variance of theoutcomes to change over time in the absence of any policy intervention, and CICaccounts for endogeneity in the choice of policy intervention. Our resultsindicate that in contrast to Sweden, which did not impose a national lockdown,Germany, and to some extent, the US were the two countries where nationwidelockdown had a significant impact on the reduction in COVID-19 related totaland daily deaths per million people. In Norway and Denmark, there was nosignificant impact on total and daily deaths per million people relative toSweden. Whereas in other countries; Belgium, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK,the effect of the lockdown was in the opposite direction, that is, theyexperienced significantly higher COVID-19 related total and daily deaths permillion people, post the lockdown as compared to Sweden. Our results suggestthat the impact of nationwide lockdown on COVID-19 related total and dailydeaths per million people varied from one country to another.

Impact of national lockdown on COVID-19 deaths in select European countries and the US using a Changes-in-Changes model