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As granular data about elections and voters become available, redistrictingsimulation methods are playing an increasingly important role when legislaturesadopt redistricting plans and courts determine their legality. These simulationmethods are designed to yield a representative sample of all redistrictingplans that satisfy statutory guidelines and requirements such as contiguity,population parity, and compactness. A proposed redistricting plan can beconsidered gerrymandered if it constitutes an outlier relative to this sampleaccording to partisan fairness metrics. Despite their growing use, aninsufficient effort has been made to empirically validate the accuracy of thesimulation methods. We apply a recently developed computational method that canefficiently enumerate all possible redistricting plans and yield an independentuniform sample from this population. We show that this algorithm scales to astate with a couple of hundred geographical units. Finally, we empiricallyexamine how existing simulation methods perform on realistic validation datasets.

The Essential Role of Empirical Validation in Legislative Redistricting Simulation