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This technical report addresses a pressing issue in the trajectory of thecoronavirus outbreak; namely, the rate at which effective immunity is lostfollowing the first wave of the pandemic. This is a crucial epidemiologicalparameter that speaks to both the consequences of relaxing lockdown and thepropensity for a second wave of infections. Using a dynamic causal model ofreported cases and deaths from multiple countries, we evaluated the evidencemodels of progressively longer periods of immunity. The results speak to aneffective population immunity of about three months that, under the model,defers any second wave for approximately six months in most countries. This mayhave implications for the window of opportunity for tracking and tracing, aswell as for developing vaccination programmes, and other therapeuticinterventions.

Effective immunity and second waves: a dynamic causal modelling study