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In constant parameter compartmental models an early onset of herd immunity isat odds with estimates of R values from early stage growth. This paper utilizesa result from the theory of interest rate modeling, namely a bond pricingformula of Vasicek, and an approach inspired by a foundational result instatistics, de Finetti's Theorem, to show how the modeling discrepancy can beexplained. Moreover the difference between predictions of classic constantparameter epidemiological models and those with variation and stochasticevolution can be reduced to simple "convexity" formulas. A novel feature ofthis approach is that we do not attempt to locate a true model but only a modelthat is equivalent after permutations. Convexity adjustments can also be usedfor cross sectional comparisons and we derive easy to use rules of thumb forestimating threshold infection level in one region given knowledge of thresholdinfection in another.

Addressing the Herd Immunity Paradox Using Symmetry, Convexity Adjustments and Bond Prices