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A compartmental epidemic model is proposed to predict the Covid-19 virusspread. It considers: both detected and undetected infected populations,medical quarantine and social sequestration, release from sequestration, pluspossible reinfection. The coefficients in the model are evaluated by fitting toempirical data for eight US states: Arizona, California, Florida, Illinois,Louisiana, New Jersey, New York State, and Texas. Together these states make up43% of the US population; some of these states appear to have handled theirinitial outbreaks well, while others appear to be emerging hotspots. Theevolution of Covid-19 is fairly similar among the states: variations in contactand recovery rates remain below 5%; however, not surprisingly, variations arelarger in death rate, reinfection rate, stay-at-home effect, and release ratefrom sequestration. The results reveal that outbreaks may have been wellunderway in several states before first detected and that California might haveseen more than one influx of the pandemic. Our projections based on the currentsituation indicate that Covid-19 will become endemic, spreading for more thantwo years. Should states fully relax stay-at-home orders, most states mayexperience a secondary peak in 2021. If lockdowns had been kept in place, thenumber of Covid-19 deaths so far could have been significantly lower in moststates that opened up. Additionally, our model predicts that decreasing contactrate by 10%, or increasing testing by approximately 15%, or doubling lockdowncompliance (from the current $\sim$ 15% to $\sim$ 30%) will eradicateinfections in the state of Texas within a year. Extending our fits for all ofthe US states, we predict about 11 million total infections (includingundetected), 8 million cumulative confirmed cases, and 630,000 cumulativedeaths by November 1, 2020.

A predictive model for Covid-19 spread applied to eight US states