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The nation-wide lockdown starting 25 March 2020, aimed at suppressing thespread of the COVID-19 disease, was extended until 31 May 2020 in threesubsequent orders by the Government of India. The extended lockdown has hadsignificant social and economic consequences and `lockdown fatigue' has likelyset in. Phased reopening began from 01 June 2020 onwards. Mumbai, one of themost crowded cities in the world, has witnessed both the largest number ofcases and deaths among all the cities in India (41986 positive cases and 1368deaths as of 02 June 2020). Many tough decisions are going to be made onre-opening in the next few days. In an earlier IISc-TIFR Report, we presentedan agent-based city-scale simulator(ABCS) to model the progression and spreadof the infection in large metropolises like Mumbai and Bengaluru. As discussedin IISc-TIFR Report 1, ABCS is a useful tool to model interactions of cityresidents at an individual level and to capture the impact ofnon-pharmaceutical interventions on the infection spread. In this report wefocus on Mumbai. Using our simulator, we consider some plausible scenarios forphased emergence of Mumbai from the lockdown, 01 June 2020 onwards. Theseinclude phased and gradual opening of the industry, partial opening of publictransportation (modelling of infection spread in suburban trains), impact ofcontainment zones on controlling infections, and the role of compliance withrespect to various intervention measures including use of masks, caseisolation, home quarantine, etc. The main takeaway of our simulation results isthat a phased opening of workplaces, say at a conservative attendance level of20 to 33\%, is a good way to restart economic activity while ensuring that thecity's medical care capacity remains adequate to handle the possible rise inthe number of COVID-19 patients in June and July.

COVID-19 Epidemic Study II: Phased Emergence From the Lockdown in Mumbai