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Many countries are now investigating what the effects of summer vacationmight be on the COVID-19 pandemic. Here one particular such question isaddressed: what will happen if large numbers of metropolitan people visit aless populated province during the summer vacation? By means of a simpleepidemic model, allowing for both short and long-term visitors to the province,it is studied which features are most influential in determining if such summermovements will result in large number of infections among the provincepopulation. The method is applied to the island of Gotland off the South Eastcoast of Sweden. It is shown that the amount of mixing between the metropolitanand province groups and the fraction of metropolitan people being infectiousupon arrival are most influential. Consequently, minimizing events gatheringboth the province and metropolitan groups and/or reducing the number ofshort-term visitors could substantially decrease spreading, as could measuresto lower the fraction initially infectious upon arrival.

Summer vacation and COVID-19: effects of metropolitan people going to summer provinces