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The "New York State on Pause" executive order came into effect on March 22with the goal of ensuring adequate social distancing to alleviate the spread ofCOVID-19. Pause will remain effective in New York City in some form until earlyJune. We use a compartmentalized model to study the effects of testing capacityand social distancing measures on the evolution of the pandemic in the"post-Pause" period in the City. We find that testing capacity must increasedramatically if it is to counterbalance even relatively small relaxations insocial distancing measures in the immediate post-Pause period. In particular,if the City performs 20,000 tests per day and relaxes the social distancingmeasures to the pre-Pause norms, then the total number of deaths by the end ofSeptember can reach 250,000. By keeping the social distancing measures tosomewhere halfway between the pre- and in-Pause norms and performing 100,000tests per day, the total number of deaths by the end of September can be keptat around 27,000. Going back to the pre-Pause social distancing norms quicklymust be accompanied by an exorbitant testing capacity, if one is to suppressexcessive deaths. If the City is to go back to the "pre-Pause" socialdistancing norms in the immediate post-Pause period and keep the total numberof deaths by the end of September at around 35,000, then it should beperforming 500,000 tests per day. Our findings have important implications onthe magnitude of the testing capacity the City needs as it relaxes the socialdistancing measures to reopen its economy.

Can Testing Ease Social Distancing Measures? Future Evolution of COVID-19 in NYC