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We assess the impact of COVID-19 response measures implemented in Germany andSwitzerland on cumulative COVID-19-related hospitalization and death rates. Ouranalysis exploits the fact that the epidemic was more advanced in some regionsthan in others when certain lockdown measures came into force, based onmeasuring health outcomes relative to the region-specific start of the epidemicand comparing outcomes across regions with earlier and later start dates. Whenestimating the effect of the relative timing of measures, we control forregional characteristics and initial epidemic trends by linear regression(Germany and Switzerland), doubly robust estimation (Germany), or syntheticcontrols (Switzerland). We find for both countries that a relatively laterexposure to the measures entails higher cumulative hospitalization and deathrates on region-specific days after the outbreak of the epidemic, suggestingthat an earlier imposition of measures is more effective than a later one. ForGermany, we also evaluate curfews (as introduced in a subset of states) basedon cross-regional variation. We do not find any effects of curfews on top ofthe federally imposed contact restriction that banned groups of more than 2individuals. Finally, an analysis of mobility patterns in Switzerland shows animmediate behavioral effect of the lockdown in terms of reduced mobility.

The Impact of Response Measures on COVID-19-Related Hospitalization and Death Rates in Germany and Switzerland