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We draw on the data collected by the Integrated Crisis Early Warning Systemon millions of international and regional public news stories, and thissystem's indicators of the orientation toward a specific nation-state. Weconstruct the networks of international amicable and hostile relations amongnation-states that occur in specific time-periods in order to study the globalevolution of the network of such international appraisals. Our analysispresents evidence of an evolution of the structure of this network and a modelof the probabilistic micro-dynamics of the alterations of internationalappraisals during the 1995-2018 span of the available data. Our researchprovides empirical findings on long-standing debates in the interdisciplinaryfield of work on Structural Balance Theory. Also remarkably, we find that thetrajectory of the Frobenius norm of sequential transition probabilities, whichgovern the evolution of international appraisals among nations, dramaticallystabilizes.

The 1995-2018 Global Evolution of the Network of Amicable and Hostile Relations Among Nation-States