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Strong social distancing restrictions have been crucial to controlling theCOVID-19 outbreak thus far, and the next question is when and how to relaxthese restrictions. A sequential timing of relaxing restrictions across groupsis explored in order to identify policies that simultaneously reduce healthrisks and economic stagnation relative to current policies. The goal will be tomitigate health risks, particularly among the most fragile sub-populations,while also managing the deleterious effect of restrictions on economicactivity. The results of this paper show that a properly constructed sequentialrelease of age-defined subgroups from strict social distancing protocols canlead to lower overall fatality rates than the simultaneous release of allindividuals after a lockdown. The optimal release policy, in terms ofminimizing overall death rate, must be sequential in nature, and it isimportant to properly time each step of the staggered release. This modelallows for testing of various timing choices for staggered release policies,which can provide insights that may be helpful in the design, testing, andplanning of disease management policies for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic andfuture outbreaks.

Staggered Release Policies for COVID-19 Control: Costs and Benefits of Sequentially Relaxing Restrictions by Age