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An optimized heat pump control for building heating was developed forminimizing CO2 emissions from related electrical power generation. The controlis using weather and CO2 emission forecasts as input to a Model PredictiveControl (MPC) - a multivariate control algorithm using a dynamic process model,constraints and a cost function to be minimized. In a simulation study thecontrol was applied using weather and power grid conditions during a full yearperiod in 2017-2018 for the power bidding zone DK2 (East, Denmark). Twoscenarios were studied; one with a family house and one with an officebuilding. The buildings were dimensioned on the basis of standards and buildingcodes. The main results are measured as the CO2 emission savings relative to aclassical thermostatic control. Note that this only measures the gain achievedusing the MPC control, i.e. the energy flexibility, not the absolute savings.The results show that around 16% savings could have been achieved during theperiod in well insulated new buildings with floor heating.  Further, a sensitivity analysis was carried out to evaluate the effect ofvarious building properties, e.g. level of insulation and thermal capacity.Danish building codes from 1977 and forward was used as benchmarks forinsulation levels. It was shown that both insulation and thermal mass influencethe achievable flexibility savings, especially for floor heating. Buildingsthat comply with codes later than 1979 could provide flexibility emissionsavings of around 10%, while buildings that comply with earlier codes providedsavings in the range of 0-5% depending on the heating system and thermal mass.

Control of heat pumps with CO2 emission intensity forecasts