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Since the beginning of March 2020, the cumulative numbers of cases ofinfection with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in Germany have been reportedon a daily basis. The reports originate from national laws, according to whichpositive test findings must be submitted to the Federal Health Authorities, theRobert Koch Institute, via the local health authorities. Since an enormousnumber of unreported cases can be expected, the question of how widespread thedisease has been in the population cannot be answered based on theseadministrative reports. Using mathematical modeling, however, estimates can bemade. These estimates indicate that the small numbers of diagnostic testscarried out at the beginning of the outbreak overlooked considerable parts ofthe infection. In order to cover the initial phase of future waves of thedisease, wide-spread and comprehensive tests are recommended.

Estimation of the actual disease occurrence based on official case numbers during a COVID outbreak in Germany 2020