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A major difficulty to estimate $R$ (the effective reproducing number) ofCOVID-19 is that most cases of COVID-19 infection are mild or asymptomatic,therefore true number of infection is difficult to determine. This paperestimates the daily change of $R$ and the detection rate simultaneously using aBayesian model. The analysis using synthesized data shows that our modelcorrectly estimates $R$ and detects a short-term shock of the detection rate.Then, we apply our model to data from several countries to evaluate theeffectiveness of public healthcare measures. Our analysis focuses Japan, whichemploys a moderate measure to keep "social distance". The result indicates adownward trend and now $R$ becomes below $1$. Although our analysis ispreliminary, this may suggest that a moderate policy still can prevent epidemicof COVID-19.

Simultaneous estimation of the effective reproducing number and the detection rate of COVID-19