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The current outbreak is known as Coronavirus Disease or COVID-19 caused bythe virus SAR-COV-2 which continues to wreak havoc across the globe. The WorldHealth Organization (WHO) has declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergencyof International Concern. In Pakistan, the spread of the virus is on the risewith the number of infected people and causalities rapidly increasing. In theabsence of proper vaccination and treatment, to reduce the number of infectionsand casualties, the only option so far is to educate people regardingpreventive measures and to enforce countrywide lock-down. Any strategy aboutthe preventive measures needs to be based upon detailed analysis of theCOVID-19 outbreak and accurate scientific predictions. In this paper, weconduct mathematical and numerical analysis to come up with reliable andaccurate predictions of the outbreak in Pakistan. The time-dependentSusceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model is used to fit the data and providefuture predictions. The turning point of the peak of the pandemic is defined asthe day when the transmission rate becomes less than the recovering rate. Wehave predicted that the outbreak will reach its maximum peak occurring fromlate May to 9 June with unrecovered number of Infectives in the range20000-47000 and the cumulative number of infected cases in the range of57500-153100. The number of Infectives will remain at the lower end in thelock-down scenario but can rapidly double or triple if the spread of theepidemic is not curtailed and localized. The uncertainty on single dayprojection in our analysis after April 15 is found to be within 5\%.

Analysis and Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic in Pakistan using Time-dependent SIR Model