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In this paper, a generalized fractional-order SEIR model is proposed, denotedby SEIQRP model, which has a basic guiding significance for the prediction ofthe possible outbreak of infectious diseases like COVID-19 and other insectdiseases in the future. Firstly, some qualitative properties of the model areanalyzed. The basic reproduction number $R_{0}$ is derived. When $R_{0}<1$, thedisease-free equilibrium point is unique and locally asymptotically stable.When $R_{0}>1$, the endemic equilibrium point is also unique. Furthermore, someconditions are established to ensure the local asymptotic stability ofdisease-free and endemic equilibrium points. The trend of COVID-19 spread inthe United States is predicted. Considering the influence of the individualbehavior and government mitigation measurement, a modified SEIQRP model isproposed, defined as SEIQRPD model. According to the real data of the UnitedStates, it is found that our improved model has a better prediction ability forthe epidemic trend in the next two weeks. Hence, the epidemic trend of theUnited States in the next two weeks is investigated, and the peak of isolatedcases are predicted. The modified SEIQRP model successfully capture thedevelopment process of COVID-19, which provides an important reference forunderstanding the trend of the outbreak.

Forecast analysis of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in the United States by a generalized fractional-order SEIR model