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Epidemic parameters are estimated through Bayesian inference using the dailyfatality counts in Mumbai during the period from March 31 to April 14. Adoubling time of 5.5 days (median with 95% CrI of 4.6-6.9 days) is observed. Inthe SEIR model this gives the basic reproduction rate R_0 of 3.4 (median with95% CrI of 2.4-4.8). Using as input the infection fatality rate and theinterval between infection and death, the number of infections in Mumbai isinferred. It is found that the ratio of the number of test positives to thetotal infections is 0.13\% (median), implying that tests are currently finding1 out of 750 cases of infection. After correcting for different testing rates,this result is compatible with a measurement of the ratio made recently viaserological testing in the USA. From the estimates of the number of infectionswe infer that the first COVID-19 cases were seeded in Mumbai between lateDecember 2019 and early February 2020. provided the doubling times remainedunchanged since then. We remark on some public health implications if the rateof growth cannot be controlled in about a week.

Inferring epidemic parameters for COVID-19 from fatality counts in Mumbai