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Social distancing, often in the form of lockdown, has been adopted by manycountries as a way to contrast the spreading of COVID-19. We discuss thetemporal aspects of social distancing in contrasting an epidemic diffusion. Weargue that a strategy based uniquely on social distancing requires to maintainthe relative measures for a very long time, while a more articulate strategy,which also uses early detection and prompt isolation, can be both moreefficient on reducing the epidemic peak and allow to relax the socialdistancing measures after a much shorter time. We consider in more detail thesituation in Italy, simulating the effect of different strategies through arecently introduced SIR-type epidemiological model. The short answer to thequestion in the title is: "it depends on what else you do".

How long does a lockdown need to be?