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Official counts of COVID-19 deaths have been criticized for potentiallyincluding people who did not die of COVID-19 but merely died with COVID-19. Iaddress that critique by fitting a generalized additive model to weekly countsof all deaths registered in England and Wales during the 2010s. The modelproduces baseline rates of death registrations expected without the COVID-19pandemic, and comparing those baselines to recent counts of registered deathsexposes the emergence of excess deaths late in March 2020. By April's end,England and Wales registered 45,300 $\pm$ 3200 excess deaths of adults aged45+. Through 22 May, the last day of available all-deaths data, 56,600 $\pm$4400 were registered (about 53% of which were of men). Both the ONS'scorresponding count of 43,205 death certificates which mention COVID-19, andthe Department of Health and Social Care's count of 33,671 deaths, areappreciably less, implying that their counting methods have underestimated, notoverestimated, the pandemic's true death toll. If underreporting rates haveheld steady during May, about 59,000 direct and indirect COVID-19 deaths mighthave been registered through the end of May but not yet publicly reported infull.

Excess registered deaths in England and Wales during the COVID-19 pandemic, March 2020 to May 2020