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The present ongoing global pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus is creatinghavoc across the world. The absence of any vaccine as well as any definitivedrug to cure, has made the situation very grave. Therefore only few effectivetools are available to contain the rapid pace of spread of this disease, namedas COVID-19. On 24th March, 2020, the the Union Government of India made anannouncement of unprecedented complete lockdown of the entire country effectivefrom the next day. No exercise of similar scale and magnitude has been everundertaken anywhere on the globe in the history of entire mankind. This studyaims to scientifically analyze the implications of this decision using akinetic model covering more than 96% of Indian territory. This model wasfurther constrained by large sets of realistic parameters pertinent to India inorder to capture the ground realities prevailing in India, such as: (i) truestate wise population density distribution, (ii) accurate state wise infectiondistribution for the zeroth day of simulation (20th March, 2020), (iii)realistic movements of average clusters, (iv) rich diversity in movementspatterns across different states, (v) migration patterns across differentgeographies, (vi) different migration patterns for pre- and post-COVID-19outbreak, (vii) Indian demographic data based on the 2011 census, (viii) WorldHealth Organization (WHO) report on demography wise infection rate and (ix)incubation period as per WHO report. This model does not attempt to make along-term prediction about the disease spread on a standalone basis; but tocompare between two different scenarios (complete lockdown vs. no lockdown). Inthe framework of model assumptions, our model conclusively shows significantsuccess of the lockdown in containing the disease within a tiny fraction of thepopulation and in the absence of it, it would have led to a very gravesituation.

A kinetic model for qualitative understanding and analysis of the effect  of complete lockdown imposed by India for controlling the COVID-19 disease  spread by the SARS-CoV-2 virus