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This article reports a first update on the assesment of the model previouslypresented in arXiv:2003.13890v1. New available data have been used to feed themodel and the comparison with real data still shows good agreement. The mainnovelty of the model is that it keeps track of the date of infection of asingle individual and uses stochastic distributions to aggregate individualswho share the same date of infection. In addition, it uses two types ofinfections, mild and serious, with a different recovery time. These featuresare implemented in a set of differential equations which determine the numberof Carriers, Infections, Recoveries, Hospitalized and Deaths.

Robust predictive model for Carriers, Infections and Recoveries (CIR): first update for CoVid-19 in Spain