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In cities, the creation of public transport infrastructure such as lightrails can cause changes on a very detailed spatial scale, with differentstories unfolding next to each other within a same urban neighborhood. We studythe direct effect of a light rail line built in Florence (Italy) on the retaildensity of the street where it was built and and its spillover effect on otherstreets in the treated street's neighborhood. To this aim, we investigate theuse of the Synthetic Control Group (SCG) methods in panel comparative casestudies where interference between the treated and the untreated units isplausible, an issue still little researched in the SCG methodologicalliterature. We frame our discussion in the potential outcomes approach. Under apartial interference assumption, we formally define relevant direct andspillover causal effects. We also consider the ``unrealized'' spillover effecton the treated street in the hypothetical scenario that another street in thetreated unit's neighborhood had been assigned to the intervention.

Direct and spillover effects of a new tramway line on the commercial vitality of peripheral streets. A synthetic-control approach