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During the unfolding of a crisis, it is crucial to determine its severity,yet access to reliable data is challenging. We investigate the relation betweengeolocated Tweet Intensity of initial COVID-19 related tweet at the beginningof the pandemic across Italian, Spanish and USA regions and mortality in theregion a month later. We find significant proportionality between early socialmedia reaction and the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths almost a monthlater. Our findings suggest that "the crowds" perceived the risk correctly.This is one of the few examples where the "wisdom of crowds" can be quantifiedand applied in practice. This can be used to create real-time alert systemsthat could be of help for crisis-management and intervention, especially indeveloping countries. Such systems could contribute to inform fast-responsepolicy making at early stages of a crisis.

Wisdom of Crowds Detects COVID-19 Severity Ahead of Officially Available Data