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Early assessments of the spreading rate of COVID-19 were subject tosignificant uncertainty, as expected with limited data and difficulties in caseascertainment, but more reliable inferences can now be made. Here, we estimatefrom European data that COVID-19 cases are expected to double initially everythree days, until social distancing interventions slow this growth, and thatthe impact of such measures is typically only seen nine days - i.e. threedoubling times - after their implementation. We argue that such temporalpatterns are more critical than precise estimates of the basic reproductionnumber for initiating interventions. This observation has particularimplications for the low- and middle-income countries currently in the earlystages of their local epidemics.

Challenges in control of Covid-19: short doubling time and long delay to effect of interventions