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This study quantifies the economic effect of a possible lockdown of Tokyo toprevent spread of COVID-19. The negative effect of the lockdown may propagateto other regions through supply chains because of shortage of supply anddemand. Applying an agent-based model to the actual supply chains of nearly 1.6million firms in Japan, we simulate what would happen to production activitiesoutside Tokyo when production activities that are not essential to citizens'survival in Tokyo were shut down for a certain period. We find that when Tokyois locked down for a month, the indirect effect on other regions would be twiceas large as the direct effect on Tokyo, leading to a total production loss of27 trillion yen in Japan, or 5.3% of its annual GDP. Although the productionshut down in Tokyo accounts for 21% of the total production in Japan, thelockdown would result in a reduction of the daily production in Japan by 86% ina month.

The propagation of the economic impact through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown against the spread of COVID-19