English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Free Plan

A new coronavirus disease, called COVID-19, appeared in the Chinese region ofWuhan at the end of last year; since then the virus spread to other countries,including most of Europe. We propose a differential equation governing theevolution of the COVID-19. This dynamic equation also describes the evolutionof the number of infected people for 13 common respiratory viruses (includingthe SARS-CoV-2). We validate our theoretical predictions with experimental datafor Italy, Belgium and Luxembourg, and compare them with the predictions of thelogistic model. We find that our predictions are in good agreement with thereal world since the beginning of the appearance of the COVID-19; this is notthe case for the logistic model that only applies to the first days. The secondpart of the work is devoted to modelling the descending phase, i.e. thedecrease of the number of people tested positive for COVID-19. Also in thiscase, we propose a new set of dynamic differential equations that we solvednumerically. We use our differential equations parametrised with experimentaldata to make several predictions, such as the date when Italy, Belgium, andLuxembourg will reach a peak number of SARS-CoV-2 infected people. Thedescending curves provide valuable information such as the duration of theCOVID-19 epidemic in a given Country and therefore when it will be possible toreturn to normal life. The study of the the dynamics of COVID-19 when thepopulation have been subject to less restrictive measures is beyond the scopeof this work and it will be matter of future works.

Dynamics of the COVID-1 -- Comparison between the Theoretical Predictions and the Real Data, and Predictions about Returning to Normal Life