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Supply chain security threats pose new challenges to security risk modelingtechniques for complex ICT systems such as the IoT. With established techniquesdrawn from attack trees and reliability analysis providing needed points ofreference, graph-based analysis can provide a framework for considering therole of suppliers in such systems. We present such a framework here whilehighlighting the need for a component-centered model. Given resourcelimitations when applying this model to existing systems, we study variousclasses of uncertainties in model development, including structuraluncertainties and uncertainties in the magnitude of estimated eventprobabilities. Using case studies, we find that structural uncertaintiesconstitute a greater challenge to model utility and as such should receiveparticular attention. Best practices in the face of these uncertainties areproposed.

Modeling and Assessment of IoT Supply Chain Security Risks: The Role of Structural and Parametric Uncertainties