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As baby boomers have begun to downsize and retire, their preferences nowoverlap with millennials' predilection for urban amenities and smaller livingspaces. This confluence in tastes between the two largest age segments of theU.S. population has meaningfully changed the evolution of home prices in theUnited States. Utilizing a Bartik shift-share instrument for demography-drivendemand shocks, we show that from 2000 to 2018 (i) the price growth of four- andfive-bedroom houses has lagged the prices of one- and two-bedroom homes, (ii)within local labor markets, the relative home prices in baby boomer-rich zipcodes have declined compared with millennial-rich neighborhoods, and (iii) thezip codes with the largest relative share of smaller homes have grown fastest.These patterns have become more pronounced during the latest economic cycle. Weshow that the effects are concentrated in areas where housing supply is mostinelastic. If this pattern in the housing market persists or expands, theapproximately 16.5 trillion in real estate wealth held by households headed bythose aged 55 or older will be significantly affected. We find little evidencethat these upcoming changes have been incorporated into current prices.

The Millennial Boom, the Baby Bust, and the Housing Market