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I estimate the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model forCoronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The transmission rate is heterogeneousacross countries and far exceeds the recovery rate, which enables a fastspread. In the benchmark model, 28% of the population may be simultaneouslyinfected at the peak, potentially overwhelming the healthcare system. The peakreduces to 6.2% under the optimal mitigation policy that controls the timingand intensity of social distancing. A stylized asset pricing model suggeststhat the stock price temporarily decreases by 50% in the benchmark case butshows a W-shaped, moderate but longer bear market under the optimal policy.

Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) Dynamics of COVID-19 and Economic Impact