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In this paper we propose a Susceptible-Infected-Exposed-Recovered-Dead(SEIRD) differential model for the analysis and forecast of the COVID-19 spreadin some regions of Italy, using the data from the Italian Protezione Civilefrom February 24th 2020. In this study investigate an adaptation of the model.Since several restricting measures have been imposed by the Italian governmentat different times, starting from March 8th 2020, we propose a modification ofSEIRD by introducing a time dependent transmitting rate. In the numericalresults we report the maximum infection spread for the three Italian regionsfirstly affected by the COVID-19 outbreak(Lombardia, Veneto and EmiliaRomagna). This approach will be successively extended to other Italian regions,as soon as more data will be available.

Preliminary analysis of COVID-19 spread in Italy with an adaptive SEIRD model