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We estimate the growth in demand for ICU beds in Chicago during the emergingCOVID-19 epidemic, using state-of-the-art computer simulations calibrated forthe SARS-CoV-2 virus. The questions we address are these:  (1) Will the ICU capacity in Chicago be exceeded, and if so by how much?  (2) Can strong mitigation strategies, such as lockdown or shelter in placeorder, prevent the overflow of capacity?  (3) When should such strategies be implemented?  Our answers are as follows:  (1) The ICU capacity may be exceeded by a large amount, probably by a factorof ten.  (2) Strong mitigation can avert this emergency situation potentially, buteven that will not work if implemented too late.  (3) If the strong mitigation precedes April 1st, then the growth of COVID-19can be controlled and the ICU capacity could be adequate. The earlier thestrong mitigation is implemented, the greater the probability that it will besuccessful. After around April 1 2020, any strong mitigation will not avert theemergency situation. In Italy, the lockdown occurred too late and the number ofdeaths is still doubling every 2.3 days. It is difficult to be sure about theprecise dates for this window of opportunity, due to the inherent uncertaintiesin computer simulation. But there is high confidence in the main conclusionthat it exists and will soon be closed.  Our conclusion is that, being fully cognizant of the societal trade-offs,there is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to avert a worst-case scenarioin Chicago, but only with strong mitigation/lockdown implemented in the nextweek at the latest. If this window is missed, the epidemic will get worse andthen strong mitigation/lockdown will be required after all, but it will be toolate.

Window of Opportunity for Mitigation to Prevent Overflow of ICU capacity in Chicago by COVID-19