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Kaplan-Meier estimate, commonly known as product limit method (PLM), andmaximum likelihood estimate (MLE) methods in general are often cited as meansof stochastic highway capacity estimation. This article discusses theirunsuitability for such application as properties of traffic flow do not meetthe assumptions for use of the methods. They assume the observed subject has ahistory which it went through and did not fail. However, due to its nature,each traffic flow measurement behaves as a separate subject which did not gothrough all the lower levels of intensity (did not "age"). An alternativemethod is proposed. It fits the resulting cumulative frequency of breakdownswith respect to the traffic flow intensity leading to the breakdown instead ofdirectly estimating the underlying probability distribution of capacity.Analyses of accuracy and sensitivity to data quantity and censoring rate of thenew method are provided along with comparison to the PLM. The results proveunsuitability of the PLM and MLE methods in general. The new method is thenused in a case study which compares capacity of a work-zone with and without atraffic flow speed harmonisation system installed. The results confirm positiveeffect of harmonisation on capacity.

New stochastic highway capacity estimation method and why product limit method is unsuitable