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Several countries are currently investigating issues of neglect, poor qualitycare and abuse in the aged care sector. In most cases it is the State wholicense and monitor aged care providers, which frequently introduces a seriousconflict of interest because the State also operate many of the facilitieswhere our most vulnerable peoples are cared for. Where issues are raised withthe standard of care being provided, the State are seen by many as adeep-pockets defendant and become the target of high-value lawsuits. This paperdraws on cases and circumstances from one jurisdiction based on the Englishlegal tradition, Australia, and proposes a Bayesian solution capable ofdetermining probability for success for citizen plaintiffs who bring negligenceclaims against a public authority defendant. Use of a Bayesian network trainedon case audit data shows that even when the plaintiff case meets allrequirements for a successful negligence litigation, success is not oftenassured. Only in around one-fifth of these cases does the plaintiff succeedagainst a public authority as defendant.

Public Authorities as Defendants: Using Bayesian Networks to determine the Likelihood of Success for Negligence claims in the wake of Oakden