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The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen thathas spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number,R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of thisquantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated keyepidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating theseestimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data withmathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individualsduring early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to bebetween 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing ofsymptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong controlmeasures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated