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We start with the distinction of outcome- and belief-based Bayesian models ofthe sequential update of agents' beliefs and subjective reliability of sources(trust). We then focus on discussing the influential Bayesian model ofbelief-based trust update by Eric Olsson, which models dichotomic events andexplicitly represents anti-reliability. After sketching some disastrous recentresults for this perhaps most promising model of belief update, we show newsimulation results for the temporal dynamics of learning belief with andwithout trust update and with and without communication. The results seem toshed at least a somewhat more positive light on thecommunicating-and-trust-updating agents. This may be a light at the end of thetunnel of belief-based models of trust updating, but the interpretation of theclear findings is much less clear.

The Temporal Dynamics of Belief-based Updating of Epistemic Trust: Light at the End of the Tunnel?