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Certain subpopulations like female sex workers (FSW), men who have sex withmen (MSM), and people who inject drugs (PWID) often have higher prevalence ofHIV/AIDS and are difficult to map directly due to stigma, discrimination, andcriminalization. Fine-scale mapping of those populations contributes to theprogress towards reducing the inequalities and ending the AIDS epidemic. In2016 and 2017, the PLACE surveys were conducted at 3,290 venues in 20 out ofthe total 28 districts in Malawi to estimate the FSW sizes. These venuesrepresent a presence-only data set where, instead of knowing both where peoplelive and do not live (presence-absence data), only information about visitedlocations is available. In this study, we develop a Bayesian model forpresence-only data and utilize the PLACE data to estimate the FSW size anduncertainty interval at a $1.5 \times 1.5$-km resolution for all of Malawi. Theestimates can also be aggregated to any desirable level (city/district/region)for implementing targeted HIV prevention and treatment programs in FSWcommunities, which have been successful in lowering the incidence of HIV andother sexually transmitted infections.

Modeling the Marked Presence-only Data: A Case Study of Estimating the Female Sex Worker Size in Malawi