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The potential for advances in information-age technologies to underminenuclear deterrence and influence the potential for nuclear escalationrepresents a critical question for international politics. One challenge isthat uncertainty about the trajectory of technologies such as autonomoussystems and artificial intelligence (AI) makes assessments difficult. Thispaper evaluates the relative impact of autonomous systems and artificialintelligence in three areas: nuclear command and control, nuclear deliveryplatforms and vehicles, and conventional applications of autonomous systemswith consequences for nuclear stability. We argue that countries may be morelikely to use risky forms of autonomy when they fear that their second-strikecapabilities will be undermined. Additionally, the potential deployment ofuninhabited, autonomous nuclear delivery platforms and vehicles could raise theprospect for accidents and miscalculation. Conventional military applicationsof autonomous systems could simultaneously influence nuclear force postures andfirst-strike stability in previously unanticipated ways. In particular, theneed to fight at machine speed and the cognitive risk introduced by automationbias could increase the risk of unintended escalation. Finally, used properly,there should be many applications of more autonomous systems in nuclearoperations that can increase reliability, reduce the risk of accidents, and buymore time for decision-makers in a crisis.

A Stable Nuclear Future? The Impact of Autonomous Systems and Artificial Intelligence